Select Archives: 2009
'Select' rather than 'Comprehensive' due to the degree of repetitive reinforcement for overall intermediate-term and long-term fundamental perspectives and critical technical projections.
While consulting clients find revisitng major themes and certain technical indications useful,
a full archive would be over loaded, and less relevant regarding the true nature of our analysis.
Other Archived Reports selected for meaningful insights:
2008 2007 2006 2005
RECENT & EXTENDED REPORT SAMPLES
These were chosen for their insights at key technical turning points for price trends, significant sustained fundamental factors and/or some general educational benefit.
TrendView BRIEF UPDATE Thursday, June 11, 2009
We begin by pointing out "the US long bond auction is irrelevant", due both to it being pre-hedged and primacy of the equities trend in any further decision.
In the event, the bonds rallied in spite of it when the 'good news' of stronger than expected US Retail Sales failed to sustain DJIA above 8,800 once again.
Also explored are the predictable continued weakness in mortgage Refi's and still negative OECD Composite Leading indicators,
followed by a Market Alert on 'Deceptive Data' where headline numbers mask the still quite weak aspects of much of the 'good news'.
The US Dollar Index also held the initial retest of its .7930-00 UP CPR signal from right into the US Employment report.
 Click to Read
TrendView BRIEF UPDATE Friday, June 5, 2009
While acknowledging the importance of the DJIA UP Break above the 8,600 area from early in the week on positive news,
into the US Employment report we question whether it can push above the 8,800 area.
Amazingly enough, a truly upbeat number could not accomplish that either on that Friday nor with friendly news the following week.
However, 'less weak' than expected US numbers had the predictable effect of knocking June T-note below 116-16 that took the September contract all the way to the 113-00 area,
yet saw US Dollar Index maintain its very interesting recovery back above the .7900 area.
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TrendView BRIEF UPDATE Wednesday, May 27, 2009
Serial DJIA setbacks from anticipated 8,600 area resistance still left it above its 8,200 area major, multifaceted UP Break,
and left the door for the extension to the upper 8,000 area as well as continued the pressure on the US dollar and long dated govvies.
Especially the weakness of the June T-note below its major 119-16 UP Break in spite of modest Fed intervention pointed to further weakness
that would impact the mortgage rates and refinanciings to produce a more negative economic environment in spite of the buoyancy of equities.
Immediate focus on this includes an already weak MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey in spite of rates only just beginning to rise.
Equities resilient up trend also had the predictable effect of knocking the US Dollar Index below .8250 and .8150 supports, with .7900 and .7750 next key levels.
Click to Read
TrendView GENERAL UPDATE Thursday, May 7, 2009
The DJIA Close above the 8,200 area is a major, multifaceted UP Break,
and that most likely opens the door for the extension to the mid-upper 8,000 area as well as continued the pressure on the US dollar and long dated govvies.
In fact, US Dollar Index was already slipping below critical support in the .8450-.8400 area,
even though the June T-note was managing to temporarily hold no worse that its critical 120-00/119-00 support.
Gold and Crude Oil both viewed the equities strength as reasons to extend their incipient rallies.
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TrendView GENERAL UPDATE Thursday, April 23, 2009
The primary focus is back on the extended recovery of the US Dollar Index to the major Negated .8650 UP Break, and likely failure from somewhere around that area.
The importance of DJIA support at 7,800-7,750 and the likelihood that June T-note would hold the initial test of 120-00/119-00 are also major keys.
Crude Oil holding minor slippage below the 50.00 area and the likelihood Gold would reinvigorate its uptrend back above 900-890 are also duly noted.
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TrendView GENERAL UPDATE Thursday, April 2, 2009
It seemed like the equities were back good old days of "climbing the wall of worry" after Monday's scary auto business bankruptcy news could not push DJIA back below 7,500-7,400 support.
In fact, remaining above that area kept the potential for a rally to the mid-8,000 area on track, which seemed as likely due to changes by FASB as anything the Fed or US Treasury had implemented.
That worked hand in glove US Dollar Index being restrained back near the .8650 area and continued orderly erosion of long dated govvies.
Click to Read
TrendView BRIEF UPDATE Friday, March 20, 2009
Following up on Wednesday's MARKET ALERT there is very specific articulation of the US dollar being "...back into a bear market" on the failure of the US Dollar Index back below the major .8650 UP Break.
Also noted is that any DJIA push above 7,500-7,620 resistance would present the potential for a rally to "...possibly the mid-upper 8,000 area."
Click to Read
TrendView MARKET ALERT Wednesday, March 18, 2009
After hinting at it in various ways for some time, the FOMC finally made its quantitative easing program official.
While predictable, the market responses also pointed to the limitations of this program.
DJIA kept the bid into its 7,500 area resistance, and the US Dollar Index imploded back below its critical .8600 area UP Break (Negating it), reinvigorating the overall bearish trend.
However, most telling was the underperformance of the 30-year T-bond, which suggested the Fed's program was anything but a new dawn for bond markets.
And they did indeed top out over the next couple of sessions prior to returning to the bear trend in place since the major December 2008 highs.
Click to Read
Weekly Overview Monday, March 16, 2009
What a difference a month makes. As opposed to the ambush that left DJIA below 7,882 on its way to new lows,
we had cautioned from the top of the previous week that the equities bears needed to defend the DOWN Runaway Gap back to 7,063.
Their failure to do so turned that negative signal into an Exhaustion Gap Bottom, and left the 7,000 area as support for a likely move back up "to anywhere between 7,800 and the mid-8,000 area."
It was a sign that "psych trumps data" in the wake of FASB easing of mark-to-market rules, and in anticipation of the Fed possibly moving to quantitative easing (which it did),
as well as other constructive forward-looking factors. A chart link is included to illustrate this significant change,
which also saw US dollar weaken markedly, accelerated by the Wednesday FOMC quantitative easing announcement.
While the T-note also liked that, there were reasons to believe its rally would be temporary, as has been the case due to the equities extended recovery.
Click to Read
Weekly Overview Monday, March 2, 2009
Repeated missteps of Obama administration officials saw DJIA slip below the 7,200 area 2002 low, and perched precariously near potential DOWN Acceleration at 6,970.
In the event, the market gapped down onto what looked like an Obam-Acapuclo cliff dive, and stalled on a retest of 6,970 at midweek prior to hitting major lower support in the 6,500 area.
On previous recent form it was no surprise that this assisted US Dollar Index in pushing above the .8846 November 2008 high,
and provided no help to the T-note that was struggling against 124-00 due to fears of the cost of any further rescues.
Yet, that sort of DJIA extreme DOWN Runaway Gap required confirmation, and a picture is included for clarification.
Click to Read
TrendView GEENRAL UPDATE Friday, February 13, 2009
Friday the 13th into a long holiday weekend with DJIA struggling to hold (extensively discussed) critical 7,882 support; a perfect formula for an ambush.
While that only occurred on a modest basis with Friday's 7,850 Close, it was enough to trigger the subsequent move through the historic congestion and recent trading low at 7,450.
Equities problems leave T-note struggling into the mid-124 area, yet with US Dollar Index firm up against .8640.
Click to Read
TrendView BRIEF UPDATE Wednesday, January 21, 2009
The equity market bears had certainly cooked up a 'warm welcome' for the new sheriff on Inauguration Day,
as the DJIA Closed below 8,000 for the first time since the mid-November crisis.
Yet, that was weakening March T-note below 124 on heavy liquidity injection fears in the wake of the previous week's Bank of America rescue and a failed UK Gilt auction.
All of which continue to strengthen the US Dollar Index back up to the major .8640 area resistance,
along with the Japanese yen Carry Trade Crisis revisit to its highs (or even new highs in some cases.)
In hindsight that turned out to be its Last Hurrah prior to the focus the US dollar 'haven' bid.
Click to Read
Weekly Overview Monday, January 12, 2009
While there is little further evolution of previous cogent technical indications,
this was an important report that reinforced continued weakness of the global economy with the attached OECD Composite Leading Indicators.
In spite of the hopes for the new US administration, they clearly "signal deep slowdown in OECD area and major non-OECD member economies."
That also reinforces the strength returning to the US dollar and Japanese yen.
Click to Read
Read OECD Composite Leading Indicators continued weakness
TrendView BRIEF UPDATE Thursday, January 8, 2009
Our cautionary word was DJIA failure to Close above 9,000 left it vulnerable to weakness back down to 8,200, or even the 8,000-7,900 area once again.
Similarly, March T-note holding 124-00/123-16 support could likely rally.
All of that is consistent with Bank of England finally allowing there was a global "sharp and synchronized downturn", even if the ECB still failed to 'get it'.
Click to Read
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