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Opalesque Futures Intelligence Articles Trilogy: SCC foments trend volatility
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The New/Old Capital Markets Paradigm (circa 2009) ...trend analysis is back
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Fall 2010 Review & Outlook and the Spring 2010 Crisis Overview
The Rohr EDGE...
...a hierarchy of analytic excellence
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I. HISTORY Awareness of long term cycles affords exceptional perspective. With thirty years of corporate history and institutional memory, Rohr provides an excellent assessment of broad trends and major price potentials.
II. PERSPECTIVE Intermediate term trend analysis benefits clients desiring both decisive technical focus at key price levels, as well as cogent review of fundamental and psychological forces driving current and extended trends.
III. FINESSE Rohr has one of the very sharpest pencils in the entire field. While that seems the sort of hyperbole we studiously avoid, our clients have consistently noted the obvious benefit of our highly focused analysis is the degree to which it significantly enhances active, effective risk management.
As no analyst is right all of the time, we are dedicated to timely finesse of both anticipated and unexpected price activity, under all trend conditions.
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History: Many analysts thought it effective to only view the Euro from its January 1999 inception. That left them prone to citing new all-time lows or highs that were technically correct, yet not the most accurate perspective.
For example, the 1.3666 December 2004 official 'all-time high' of EUR/USD was actually well short of the March 1995 hypothetical 1.4535 high set by the synthetic EMU currency basket, and overbought into major long-term weekly oscillator resistance. Rohr also has extensive experience of central bank activity, and subsequent major market responses.
Perspective: The assessment that the US dollar up trend was stalling in late 2005 was based upon a combined lack of technical UP Break follow through, as well as the shift in key fundamental factors. Similarly, the likelihood long dated fixed income would enter a more aggressive bear phase into early 2006 was discerned from the Fall 2005 technical trend failure of the Bund, and rapidly improving European economic situation.
The same sort of intermediate-term technical and fundamental indications were instrumental in the 'mirror image' signal of fixed income bottoming into June 2007 right before the July 2007 trend failure of the DJIA that signalled the likely major cycle reversal into a bear trend for equities.
Finesse: After accurately anticipating the aggressive early 2006 fixed income bear, we noted a strong basing potential into mid-May. Yet, it was clear that still left room for the US T-note’s subsequent erosion to a new low into the 104-00 area major support not quite hit in mid-May. As such, we avoided renewing our aggressive bear view when that occurred just as European instruments held previous lows for a major bear market rally.
It was deja vu one year later when major oscillator indications allowed us to suggest the T-note was likely bottoming on a retest of the 104-00 area right into strong economic news in mid-June 2007 for a major cyclical low.
That was subsequently cited in the June 14, 2007 Financial Times "Bond math yields to animal spirits" article (highlighted version here.)
We also projected the likelihood of a mid-May 2006 US dollar bottom into EUR/USD 1.2950 leaving it range bound for quite some time, as well as the eventual late 2006 push above that level reinvigorating the sustained US dollar bear trend, confirmed by US Dollar Index failure below .8500.
History - Perspective - Finesse
The Rohr EDGE hierarchy of analytic excellence
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