Articles

Bond math yields to animal spirits (highlighted version)  (June 14, 2007)
Financial Times 'Short View' fixed income analysis, including the previous Rohr projection it might bottom in spite of heavy downward momentum and negative psychology.  (See the June 12th Capital Markets Observer III-24 extended analysis in the Sample Reports page.)
^. "Analysts of trading patterns had predicted something like this could happen."   "(Rohr)... ...pointed out just before yesterday's bounce that a break through several psychological landmarks had come just as a long-term trend (for rising yields) was looking over-extended, and as bearish sentiment had become overwhelming."  "These were reasons to buy."   -FT analyst John Authers

Rohr article: "Technical Versus (??) Fundamental"  (June 1996)
Are Most Trend Analysts Doing About The Same Thing from Different Perspectives?
"The market is a creature of expectations." -Anonymous

Rohr article: "The Importance of Balance"  (June 1996)
Why the Major Classes of Technical Indicators Are Best Viewed
   in Conjunction and Across Time Frames.
"In danger all that counts is really carrying out all that has to be done - thoroughness - and going forward, in order not to perish by tarrying in the danger." - The I Ching ^1
1 Wilhelm, Richard, The I Ching, Princeton University Press, Princeton, Copyright 1950 by Bollingen Foundation Inc., p. 115., as translated into English by C.F. Baynes.

Letters

Carry 'sequence' cart and horse common sense! (highlighted version)
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on more specious carry trade concerns  (August 7, 2007)
Rohr refutes the notion equity market weakness + yen strength = Carry Trade Crisis. A simple review of the 'sequence' of the asset market devaluation and yen strength illustrates the same point as clearly articulated back in March (and previous.)

Unavoidable systemic risk (highlighted version)
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on financial engineering, fear and greed  (July 12, 2007)
Discordant comments from two financial industry prime movers elicited Rohr's observations on why human nature means it's never really 'different this time.'

Regulator gets it right on Chicago exchanges merger
FT letters page: Rohr on sensible DoJ CME/CBOT merger decision (June 27, 2007)
"It is refreshing to see a major government regulator get it right, and for the right reasons."    "The DoJ took the rightful view that (benefits to retail traders as well as global competition factors) transcend any draconian provincial considerations."

Learn to love the bubble (highlighted version)
FT LEX forum Rohr comment on extended equity market resilience (June 14, 2007)
As positive factors and risk complacency dominate, it pays to love the bubble.        Yet, as opposed to getting married to a permanently bullish psychology, one should appreciate it as a serious infatuation.

Interest rate 'comfort zone' Catch 22
Financial Times LEX forum Rohr comment on Mr. Mishkin's 'comfort zone' (April 2, 2007)
Mr. Mishkin's 'Inflation Dynamics' speech may have correctly descibed the collateral damage necessary to get inflation back down into the Fed's comfort zone. Yet, if that becomes the actual policy prerogative, it will be the first time since the G. WIlliam Miller era of the 1970's that jobs are a higher Fed priority than inflation credentials. This de facto monetization of public and consumer debt almost never ends well.

Mideast progress: wishful thinking or a real possibility?
Financial Times letters page: Rohr on real Mideast contingencies  (March 23, 2007)
The geopolitical impact of the Mideast peace process can have a very real effect on global markets through energy prices and general unease. Can both sides finally agree to negotaite in good faith? It all depends on their definition of 'victory.'

Just desserts for a dovish Fed
Financial Times LEX forum Rohr discussion of Mr. Bernanke's role (February 27, 2007)
This week brought a previous Fed Chairman into juxtaposition with the current one. Mr. Bernanke's refusal to foment a manageable contraction earlier in the cycle has left him open to the worst implications of La Fontaine’s observation, “Our destiny is frequently met in the very paths we take to avoid it." Sent just prior to his testimony in the wake of the Greenspan comment-triggered equity market problems, it hoped Mr. Bernake had made the transition from 'professor' to "World's Central Banker" prime mover; in the event, he and Mr. Paulson carried the day.

An opaque design for transparent ECB
Financial Times letters page Rohr letter on architectural article  (December 2, 2006)
Irreverant comment on ultra-modern new European Central Bank headquarters design. Does the Euro really benefit from an ECB HQ which denigrates existing architecture, is opaque, and appears to be tipping to the point of being unstable?

Keeping a handle on the hellish hand basket
Financial Times letters page Rohr response  (November 3, 2006)
Jaundiced response to FT Comment "Too many people are tuning out of the news", submitted by the estimable FT ex-Editor-in-Chief Richard Lambert (November 1.) That nobody cares beyond their parochial interests and issues means news is all devolving into partisan soundbite twaddle.  "The basic view is the same as that of any reasonably intelligent citizen of Rome living through the decline of the empire."

Real test will come later, but for now Bernanke triumphs
Financial Times letters page Rohr opinion  (July 25, 2006)
"More 'Greenspan-esque'... ...tone and content... ...have restored his credibility..." "The real risks only come later if the Fed's expectations... ...are not realized."
"In which case, instead of just watering down the content, the Fed may still need to pull the punch bowl."

Federal Reserve may still have to pull the punch-bowl at the party
Financial Times letters page Rohr opinion  (April 21, 2006)
"I... ...disagree with this misplaced notion,..." "...the Fed end its tightening exercise."
"I remind everyone again of Alan Greenspan's admonition in September last year..."

Fed learns lesson on interest rate
Financial Times letters page Rohr response to Opinion below  (December 2, 2005)
"Yet there are clear indications that the Fed is prepared to go further than most observers presume..."
Close to neutral
Opinion of the Editor of the Financial Times  (November 28, 2005)
"With rates at 4 per cent, the Fed is on the threshold of a neutral zone..."
We question that in the subsequent observation (above) on that theme...

The big risks of future miscues
Financial Times letters page Rohr response to FT analysis  (March 18, 2005)
'It is both disconcerting and just plain annoying that seasoned financial market commentators often assert that forward futures prices tell us something about what the future holds ("Getting used to oil at $50", March 11).'    We always do our best to refute that misplaced notion, with Crude Oil and Eurodollar examples in this instance.